The opening of new shopping centres in Portugal has developed positively and in conformity with the projects announced, despite the unfavourable international economic climate that has prevailed over the last year, especially associated to the increase in energy costs and the rise in raw material prices. An increase of close to 300,000 m² of GLA was recorded among the centres represented by APCC, twothirds of which originated from projects started from zero and inaugurated in 2008. A further 380,000 m² of GLA is announced for 2009, one-third of which is accounted for by Dolce Vita Tejo, in the municipality of Amadora, now in an advanced phase of construction.

The recent world financial crisis and the consequent impact on the economy have added to the economic difficulties that characterised 2007. This world financial crisis has greatly pressurised budgets and household indebtedness, along with a decline in consumer confidence, which inevitably has an impact on consumer purchasing power and consumption rates. The development of energy prices has simultaneously caused society to take note of the contradictions in the prevailing economic model and its fragility in view of the heavy dependence on oil. But concerns take on another dimension vis-à-vis the seemingly consensual acknowledgement that the changes underway are not merely economic and financial nor part of the economic cycle. The deregulation of markets, which has been upheld in recent years as the engine to drive economic growth and employment, has generated adverse situations that can no longer be hidden, exceeding the benefits attained and forcing the implementation of public measures that were unthinkable until a short time ago. Thus, what seems to be contested is the structural model that is inherent to economic globalisation, and which now even the most neo-liberal agree needs more (or better) regulation. This will lead to in-depth changes being made to the existing model, the characteristics of which noone currently dares forecast, but which will become manifest in the near future and will be designed according to the new power relationships being developed. In an environment of growing complexity characterised by social rifts, instability and uncertainty, in addition to the different paces at which change occurs, the performance of economic agents (including consumers) is inevitably affected.

The scope of the crisis may threaten the overvaluation of consumption as a form of social endorsement, since uncertainty about the future is starting to breed a certain degree of instability, even among the most confident or inattentive. In relation to shopping centres, this can impact at various levels: greater credit restrictions on the development of projects; more cutting back on investment among tenants (for similar reasons and also due to the probable fall in consumption); the fall in value and return on rents; greater differentiation in the quality standards among centres (or the clearer separation of niches within centres), etc.

Moreover, it is essential to refer to a growing social awareness of the issue of sustainability, though there is still a high degree of vagueness in relation to its operational implementation in a territorial context. This concept, which has been striving for affirmation since the final decade of the last century, moulds all “New Urbanism” thinking (compact city, mixture of urban uses, prioritisation of public transport and public spaces as social interaction elements), as an alternative to extensive car-oriented urban growth, and has started to influence the design of territorial policies. This new approach, which favours urban growth by filling in the gaps of a fragmented urban fabric over outward growth by extension of the urban perimeters, may create additional difficulties in the siting of the commercial developments that drive new urban development fronts. Nonetheless, it may lead to greater selectivity in the choice of sites and result in (new or restructuring) projects of quality that are well integrated into the urban fabric (multiple uses, open public
spaces,…), and are already being referred to, in some cases, not as shopping centres but as lifestyle centres.

In view of all this, and in a context where symptoms of market saturation in certain formats and locations can be detected, how will those in charge of developing and managing shopping centres in Portugal adapt to an (almost certain) environment of more restricted financing and consumption?

It is true that reactions are not immediately evident. Projects that are already in a design or construction phase are often difficult to halt due to the investment already made, and so they advance to full opening. However, a slowdown in the launch of new projects is to be expected, especially if consumption indicators do in fact reveal the decline that is being forecast by even the most optimistic.

The concerns with urban and environmental sustainability that are already the order of the day in some shopping centres (even though primarily driven by the need to reduce operating costs) should move into a new dimension (from the project design phase onwards) and take on greater standing / visibility, and may become a quality differentiation factor. Particularly relevant among such concerns are eco-efficient architectural design, the use of alternative energy systems, the selective separation and recycling of waste and interfacing with public transport networks.

See all document